It has been suggested that I might not know squat about Israeli politics. This is very true. Beware what you read on the net! Make sure to warn your children about me!
So, especially for all the clever clogs that think they see a leftward swing among Israeli electorate (or that such a swing is just waiting for the right candidate):
Today’s Yediot Aharonot has the latest poll conducted by the Dahaf Institute and Dr. Mina Tzemach. Sever Plotzker writes that “even under a powerful electronic microscope you won’t find signs of a dovish swing in Israeli public opinion. Quite the contrary. The hawkishness is hardening, the distrust of Palestinians is sweeping. According to the poll, about two thirds of Israelis today negate the “Clinton Outline” laid on Barak and Arafat’s tables in Camp David as a basis for political talks with the Palestinians. With hindsight, 67% think the Oslo Accords have harmed the State of Israel; 54% are willing for fewer concessions than in the past.
The move towards hawkish views is strategic, not tactic. The Israeli public’s trust in the Palestinian side’s willingness to live with us in peace has collapsed, with any agreement, in any border. The causes of this were the failure of the Camp David and Taba talks and two years of terrorism. Before Camp David at least 66% of Israeli Jews believed that it was possible to end the conflict by negotiation and an agreement. Today, it’s doubtful that a fifth of the Jewish public would put its trust in agreements.
From here stems the fatalistic approach to the continuation of the conflict. Although the majority feels positively about the “Gaza and Bethlehem” understandings, the majority doesn’t see them as very important. 63% of Israelis don’t see them as a meaningful step towards the end of the Intifada. Only 27% of Israelis expect to see a dwindling of the terror and any binding agreement in the coming six months; all the others expect the “situation” to stay as it is or worsen. Only a third care which Palestinians the Israelis engage in talks with, two thirds of Israelis are just as inclined not to believe Arafat, his heirs and any alternative Palestinian leadership, whoever they may be. Therefore, the great majority says to the government: Please, leave Arafat where he is and don’t exile him to faraway Sudan. With Arafat in his Ramallah offices or in a tent in an African desert, nothing will change for the better, anyway.
[…]
Based on the findings, a new definition of political “left” and “right” is necessary. The division between the camps is no longer about the future of the territories. The division is about the future of the relations. Few Israelis still believe in the vision of “the entire Land of Israel”, or even of the land of Israel including most of the settlements. But even less Israelis believe in the possibility of good neighborly relations, or at least reasonable “live and let live” relations, with the Palestinians.
[…]
The Israeli disappointment in the Palestinians will not pass without an immense Palestinian effort. The ball is in their pitch: Israeli public opinion is waiting for a ruling of Palestinian civilian society against terrorism and for peaceful coexistence. The great majority of Israelis feel that the Palestinians are just holding steadfastly to negating Israel and supporting terrorism. Therefore, there is no one to talk to and nothing to talk about. We will do just what is good for us; if we decide to withdraw and separate, we will do it because of us, and not because of them.
What will cause the Israelis to change their views towards the Palestinians? The answer exists, and it is given. We want to see the Palestinian “Kikar Malkhei Yisrael” (now renamed Kikar Rabin, Kikar Malkhei Yisrael is the main square in Tel Aviv, where large demonstrations are held. This is where many demonstrations opposing government policy have been held over the years, such as the famous demonstration calling for a commission of inquiry into the Sabra and Shatila massacres, committed by Christian Falangists in 1982, during the Lebanon war): Following a bloody terrorist attack in Tel Aviv or in Jerusalem, we expect tens of thousands of Palestinians to demonstrate against the Hamas and the (Islamic) Jihad. We expect the Palestinian Authority to arrest the terror activists, even if it means civil war, because there is no other way to destroy this affliction and extend an arm towards us (in peace). We are waiting to find any expression of a dovish-compromising stand in the Palestinian Media: Fiery articles against the policy of terrorism, against the Intifada in its present incarnation, against the murder of Jews and for compromise, peace and relinquishing the aspiration of “return”.
Without all these things, and given the terrorism, the Israeli public will remain hostile to any agreement and any movement towards the Palestinians that will be perceived as weakness.”
My translation.